Heat Advisory Continues; Tropical Storm Fred Forms

HOT, HUMID, DAILY STORMS: Pretty routine August weather for Alabama continues this week. The days continue to feature a mix of sun and clouds while afternoon temperatures climb into the low and mid 90s. Heat index values will easily be over 100°, and could climb over 105° at times, which is advisory criteria for Central Alabama. Therefore a Heat Advisory continues for much of Central Alabama until 9PM this evening. We are likely to see additional heat advisories in the coming days as well for parts of the state.

As far as heat relief, it will come from showers and storms that pop-up on the radar each day, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, and these will be randomly scattered about the Alabama landscape. Most of the showers and storms will come from 1PM-11PM daily with the odds of any one spot getting wet reach day are in the 40-60 percent range. Some storms could be strong at times with gusty winds and tremendous amounts of lightning. Also, some locations will see a soaking, which could cause some isolated flash flooding, but just down the road it will be dry. Again, these storms are completely random, and you just have to watch radar trends when they start developing.

FRED FINALLY FORMS: Latest update from NHC has the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.2 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph, and a general west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move north of the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday.

From there, long range modeling suggests there could be a potential landfall over the eastern Florida panhandle in five days (Monday of next week). But there remains a lot of uncertainty, and there is no way of knowing now the ultimate destination or intensity. If you have a beach trip planned next week, I would not cancel or make any changes; just keep an eye on the system.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms just to the west of its axis. Some gradual development is possible over the next several days while the system moves generally westward across the tropical Atlantic at near 20 mph. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: No real change in the weather pattern as we approach the weekend, so we will forecast partly sunny, hot and humid days, with scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs both days will be in the low 90s. Rain chances will remain in the 45-55 percent range.

NEXT WEEK: The weather early in the week will be determined by Tropical Storm Fred potentially moving inland from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At the moment, it looks like Alabama could be on the drier, west side of the circulation, but there is no way of resolving details now. Otherwise, we will stick with a persistence forecast through the week with typical summer weather…highs will be around the 90 degree mark most days, with scattered showers and storms.

Stay cool out there today!!!
Ryan