Rain and Storms Remain in the Forecast
For our Tuesday, the rain and storms will be pushing east of the area and winding down during the morning hours. The frontal boundary stalls across the state before it returns north as a warm front late today. So at this time, we think a decent part of today will be rain-free, with the sun out at times, and temperatures rising well into the 70s and there may even be 80s showing up in portions of South Alabama.
We should see a very warm, unstable, moisture-rich air mass across the state today and tonight and that is why we are going to see round two of strong and perhaps severe storms. These storms will come Wednesday morning as an embedded wave in the southwest flow aloft approaches and causes a feature to lift north along the frontal boundary across the state. Instability values will be much higher with surface dew points well into the 60s expected. This means surface based CAPE values of 800 to 1,200 J/kg are expected, and for cool season system, that is more than ample for severe storms in Alabama.
In the latest day one convective outlook, the SPC has much of the state in the standard “slight risk” of severe storms for this second round. Storms tonight into early Wednesday will be capable of producing strong, possibly damaging straight line winds and hail, and they could bring a bit more of a tornado threat as well.
RAINFALL: Oil has been accumulating on roads for months, roads will be very slick this morning, use caution please!!! Rain amounts of 1-4 inches are likely over much of the state of Alabama through Wednesday evening. These rains are going to be extremely beneficial, but not drought busting, but it sure will help. Most communities need 8 to 16 inches of rain to get back to where they need to be and hopefully, this will be the first of several rounds of rain that will help alleviate the drought conditions across the state and Southeast.
COOLER & DRIER WEATHER RETURNS: The rain and storms will wind down Wednesday from west to east across the state. The front pushes on through the state, and Thursday and Friday will be cooler, but sunny. Highs will slide back down into the lower 60s, while lows will be in the mid and upper 30s.
WEEKEND SNEAK PEEK: The cooler and drier air mass looks to hold on for Saturday, but clouds will increase late in the day. Rain begins to return Sunday as a warm front lifts northward and periods of rain, and possibly a few thunderstorms look likely late Sunday, Sunday night and Monday, as a system tracks east across the Gulf Coast. For now it doesn’t look like a severe weather threat, but it does look like one of those rainy and cool days.
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