Warm Today, Strong Storms Wednesday

Dense fog and mist are widespread across the area this morning. As we head through this final day of February, we could see a few isolated showers/ storms, but for the most part, any storms will be confined to northern portions of Alabama. It will be much warmer day as a warm front will lift north across the area, and we should see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Severe weather is expected northwest of the state across the Mississippi Valley, and that severe weather threat will shift into Alabama on Wednesday.

STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY: The month of March will come in like a lion with the threat of strong/severe storms as we are now heading towards the heart of our primary spring severe weather season in Alabama. Wednesday will be a day that we will have to stay weather weather as much of North/Central Alabama is in an “enhanced risk” of severe weather Wednesday, with the standard “slight risk” down to Grove Hill, Greenville, Troy, and Eufaula and far South Alabama is under a “marginal” risk Wednesday.

A surface low will pass well to the north of Alabama Wednesday, and it where by far the best dynamics will be. Our threat in Alabama will come with the trailing cold front pushing through the state during the afternoon and evening hours and a strong low level jet will set up over the state, combine that with an unstable air mass and strong wind fields, and strong to severe storms will likely impact our state.

The main window for severe storms will come from 12PM until about 10PM Wednesday and the the primary severe weather threat will be strong, potentially damaging straight line winds with a line of storms along the front. However, an isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out, but the tornado threat is very low. Hail is also possible Wednesday. We are also going see receive more beneficial rains as an additional inch of rain will be possible Wednesday; flooding is not expected.

END OF WORK WEEK: A new air mass arrives behind the front and both Thursday and Friday will be dry, with plenty of sunshine, cool days, and chilly nights. The highs Thursday and Friday will be in the mid to upper 60s, lows will be back down into the 30s and some places may see some patchy frost Friday morning.

THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH: The weather stays dry with a slow warming trend. After a cold start with 30s early Saturday, we project a high in the low upper 60s Saturday, followed by lower 70s Sunday. The sky will stay mostly sunny both days.

Have a terrific Tuesday!
Ryan