Sunshine Returns, Arctic Air Invades Next Week
TOMORROW/SATURDAY: Sunshine will finally return for most of the state these two days. Both days will be cool and dry with more sunshine than clouds and highs in the lower to mid 50s. Lows will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s at night.
NEW YEAR’S EVE: The latest run of the GFS and European have come to a much better understanding with each other, and now we can add the NAM-12k to the mix. The bottom line to this part of the forecast is to expect very cold temperatures during the night on Sunday and into the overnight and through the day on Monday. Wind chills on Monday will be in the teens, especially with northerly winds near 10 MPH. Here is what the models are saying…
NAM-12k
As we get to take our first look at this model’s solution for Sunday and Monday, it is running pretty close to what the European is suggesting at this point. Moisture is very limited in this run and is only painting very widely scattered light showers, some of which on the northern periphery containing some sleet pellets or a few snowflakes. These will mainly move through along and south of the I-20 corridor throughout the day, with all showers out of the area a couple of hours before the clock strikes 12:00 AM. Much of Central Alabama will be above freezing while the moisture moves through, but quickly dropping below freezing just after sunset. This could lead to some icy patches on bridges and overpasses, but don’t believe this solution will lead to major traffic issues. As far as accumulating snowfall, some could see a dusting while everyone else’s ground will stay snow free.
GFS
This model has actually been pretty consistent during the last several runs, keeping any moisture in the state well south of Central Alabama on Sunday. The main wintry mischief will stay located in the south-central part of Mississippi and into northern parts of Louisiana on Sunday morning until the evening hours before everything turns to rain as it continues to push southward to the Gulf Coast. With this solution, travel will be unaffected in Central Alabama. Temperatures will be nasty, dropping into the 20s by midnight and into the upper teens to the mid-20s at sunrise on Monday.
EURO
This model run is the wettest of the three for the southern half of Central Alabama, but locations along and north of the I-20 corridor appear to stay dry throughout the day and evening time on Sunday. It’s showing the same as the GFS, with the main wintry mischief staying in the south-central part of Mississippi and into northern parts of Louisiana on Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours before everything turns to rain as it continues to push southward to the Gulf Coast. All of Central Alabama will be dry as we hit midnight and the start of 2018, and temperatures will be in the 20s, and dropping into the upper teens to the upper 20s throughout the area at sunrise. Highs on Monday will only be in the upper 20s to the upper 30s from north to south, with Birmingham only topping out at 32 degrees. With this solution, there will be no travel issues for the northern half of the the state, with a slight possibility of a few icy spots on elevated surfaces in the south.
Once again, confidence remains low as the models have two different possible forecast solutions, and these will continue to change from model run to model run. Wintry weather issues or not, all models are showing the Arctic air invasion for at least the first week of January.
BOWL GAME FORECAST: Based off the latest model data output, it would be a good idea for both Alabama and Auburn fans to leave before noon on Sunday, or wait until after sunrise on Monday morning as the time frame for any possible wintry precipitation to fall over Central Alabama will be from around midday until late evening on Sunday. There could be some icy spots form on bridges and overpasses during that time frame, along with the lesser traveled roads. The forecast confidence remains very low at this time, so keep checking the blog the next couple of days for the latest updates.
FRIGID START TO 2018: We are still expecting the coldest air so far this winter arriving on New Year’s Day and it looks to remain in place with yet another surge of cold air arriving to end the week. Certainly brutally cold air for Alabama, and with any winds, wind chill value could fall into the single digits. Once again, as long as the trough remains over the East, and our flow is out of the northwest, there will be nothing stopping the Arctic air from spilling south out of Canada into the U.S. Looking long range in the land of Voodoo, the second week of January looks very cold as well. Of course, with cold air in place, we have to watch any moisture return out of the Gulf as it will setup winter weather issues for Alabama. I think we will see more issues with wintry precip before the pattern changes.
Have a great day!
Ryan
