Noon Update: Some Strong Afternoon Storms Possible

We are starting the day off with milder temperatures in the mid-40s to the lower 50s underneath partly to mostly cloudy sky. A few scattered showers will start to move into the western parts of the state ahead of the main squall line during the morning. The main window for strong to marginally severe storms will come from Noon-6PM.

This is going to be a low surface instability/high shear event meaning that the main threat of severe storms will come from brief thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Even though the threat is rather low, a brief isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

All of Central Alabama is included in the “Marginal Risk” area. One thing to watch is we may have to worry about is if we get any breaks in the clouds to let the sun warm the surface faster. If that occurs, we may have a few more active storms… meaning that we’ll have to watch even closer for storm development.

Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 70s in the south. After the storms move out in the evening, overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s to the mid-40s with clearing sky. Rainfall amounts throughout the day should total less than 1/2 inch throughout the area.

QUIET, SEASONAL WEEK: Tuesday through Friday will feature mostly clear sky and dry conditions, but showers make a return to the area starting late on Friday night. At this point, most of the rain activity will hold off until the weekend. Highs will start out in the lower to upper 50s on Tuesday and gradually warming into the upper 50s to the lower 60s by Friday. It’s pretty much the same story of overnight lows, starting off in the 30s on early Wednesday morning and ending in the mid to upper 40s by sunrise on Saturday morning.

WET WEEKEND: A center of low pressure will be moving into Canada from northern Minnesota with an associated cold front dragging through the Great Lakes and into the Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. Out ahead of that will be clouds and rain for us in Central Alabama. That rain will persist through Saturday night and into Sunday, before finally pushing out of the state by Sunday night. Doesn’t look to have any instability associated with this system, especially since the main dynamics will be so far away. Highs will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s on Saturday and dropping back into the mid-50s to near 60 degrees on Sunday.

Have a great day!
Ryan