All Eyes on Michael

Latest update from NHC:

As of 4am CDT Sunday night, Michael was packing winds at 70 MPH and the minimum pressure is at 983mb. The center of circulation is located just off of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, moving to the north at 7 MPH.

From the NHC: Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm’s exact track or intensity.

The GFS shows the landfall occurring on Wednesday morning in the panhandle of Florida, somewhere between Pensacola and Panama City as a hurricane. The European has it arriving about 12-24 hours later between Panama City and Tallahassee as a hurricane. The NHC storm track is relatively close to the location as the European but has it arriving around the time of the GFS. Still some uncertainty at this point, but we should be getting a much better idea within the next few hours. We’ll keep you posted.

As with an evolving pattern and a developing cyclone, we will have to wait to see how the system forms. As far as effects along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida, it looks likely that the rip current threat will be high to extreme through much of the week. The storm looks like it will be fairly small, with the main rain and wind near the center, so impacts will be dependent on the track and we will be able to be specific as the situation unfolds.

For Alabama, again, the track will determine the impacts, but it looks like the heavy rain and wind will be limited to South and Southeast Alabama either Wednesday or Thursday so stay tuned!

WEEKEND SNEAK PEEK: The trough pushing east will cause a front to finally push through the state and we are in store for some truly fall air. For next weekend, we are forecasting sunny conditions with highs back in the 70s and lows in the 50s…finally a chance to cool off for all of us.

Have a great day!
Ryan