Picture Perfect Thursday; Storm Threat Sunday

Today is another sun-filled day, and after the chilly start, highs will should surge into the mid 70s. Tonight will be clear and chilly again, with lows in the upper 40s.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: The high pressure will slide east of the state by the end of the week, which will allow our winds to switch from the south, which will allow moisture to begin to return. A disturbance will bring clouds into the state Friday, but the day should be generally dry. Highs Friday will be close to 80°. By Friday night, some rain seems likely, but likely after midnight with rainfall amounts less than one-quarter of an inch. No storms and no severe weather, so most of you will sleep through it. Saturday will be partly sunny, with a handful of showers possible, but overall it should be a dry and nice day with highs in the upper 70s.

STRONG STORMS SUNDAY: We are starting to see trends that will support another round of strong to severe storms on Sunday across the Deep South. The SPC this morning decided to include an “Enhanced Risk” of severe storms across much of Alabama on Sunday.

The front which comes through early Saturday, should begin to lift back north as a warm front on Sunday. High pressure to the east of the state, along with a weak upper level shortwave, will help lift this frontal boundary back northward. The southerly flow brings in warm/moist air into our area, increasing instability to 750-1500 J/kg across roughly the southern half of Alabama. In the upper-levels, a quick-moving shortwave trough dips through the Gulf States enhancing our dynamics. The northward extent of the instability, and therefore severe potential, remains uncertain given the track of the developing low pressure system. This will act to enhance our low level shear profiles by both increasing and backing the surface winds. Aloft, the main upper level trough is expected to become more neutrally tilted, providing quite a bit of upper level diffluence. All of this together will provide enough dynamics and forcing to support strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon through the night as the system moves through South/Central Alabama. The threats are tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. A lot to watch in the coming days to determine the overall threats, timing, and extent, but make plans and be ready for the threat this weekend.

INTO NEXT WEEK: Rain should end early Monday with a mainly dry weather continuing into Tuesday. Highs will be in the 80s, with lows in the 50s. Late Wednesday or Thursday, both long range global models are indicating a dynamic weather system for Alabama during this time frame, and yes it does have some potential for strong, possibly severe thunderstorms to Alabama. Way too early to be specific; just something to watch for now.

Social distance, but enjoy this amazingly beautiful weather!
Ryan