Very Active Start to Week…Tropics Heating Up as Well

FIRST HALF OF WEEK: Look for an increase in the number of showers and storms today through Wednesday as rising moisture and instability will provide ample fuel for showers and storms on a daily basis. Also, several feature will be working across the Gulf Coast state, which will further enhance rain chances and these three days will feature more clouds than sun, very muggy conditions and highs in the 80s for the most part, and of course numerous showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall totals are going to vary greatly across the state with some locations receiving little to no rain, while other spots could receive several inches.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Late in the week, the showers and storms should thin out a bit and become more scattered in nature, more typical of summertime in Alabama, as the air gets drier. With the slightly lower rain chances, temps will likely get hotter, and we will bring 90s back in the forecast.

WEEKEND SNEAK PEAK: No real change into next weekend and for now we will stick with a persistence forecast as the weather will be hot and humid with highs in the 90s. Scattered showers and storms will dot the radar each afternoon and evening, again, nothing too unusual for mid-July in Alabama.

IN THE TROPICS: At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 53.6 West. Edouard is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Little significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are two more areas of interest we are watching…

1. A small low pressure system is located near the coast of the Florida Panhandle between Panama City and Apalachicola. The associated thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and significant development appears unlikely before the low moves inland during the next several hours. This system is expected to evolve into a larger low pressure system and move northeastward, possibly emerging offshore of the Carolinas later this week where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A strong tropical wave, centered about 650 miles east of the Windward Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible today before environmental conditions become hostile for development on Tuesday. The wave is forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty winds on some of those islands. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Have a marvelous Monday and stay safe!!!
Ryan