Rain Chances Increasing; Several Tropical Concerns

REST OF THIS WEEK: Moisture levels are rising today, and we will bring the chance of those random, scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast today, followed by more widespread and numerous ones tomorrow and Friday. Rain chances will be in the 50-70 percent range, and most places will see 1/2 to 1 inch of rain between today and Friday, but again, not everyone will see that much. The sky will be partly sunny each day with highs ranging between 87 to 92 degrees.

IN THE TROPICS: Watching and waiting on the three tropical waves in the Atlantic, the NHC is monitoring, two of which are likely to develop and become Laura and Marco, with the third possibly becoming Nana.

1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty winds in these thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next day or so while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Formation chance…high…80 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. Formation chance…high…90 percent.

3. A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Again too early to tell where these system are heading, as they are still nearly a week away from the U.S. mainland, but it is certainly something we are going to be watching and updating as new information arrives.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We expect a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with some scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the lower 90s both days.

NEXT WEEK: For now we will go with a summer persistence forecast, but the weather around here will all depend on how the tropical systems to the south behave. It is simply too early to know what, if any impact we will see here. Highs will be in the low 90s most days, close to seasonal averages.

Stay safe!!!
Ryan