Scattered Storms Today; Tropics Getting Very Active

MORE STORMS TO START THE WEEK: A frontal boundary is stalled just north of Alabama, a very moist air mass in place, and several shortwaves working along the front, we look to see numerous showers and storms today and tomorrow, but the greatest coverage of these will be across the northern half of the state. These storms could be strong to severe, and the SPC has the northern half of Alabama in a “marginal risk” for severe storms today.

It looks like there could be a couple of MCSs (mesoscale convective systems) or thunderstorm complexes developing to the west and riding along the boundary into the state. The main threat with these features would be damaging winds. When it is not raining, it will be hot and very humid as temperatures climb into the 90s, with heat index values these two days over 100°.

IN THE TROPICS: Watching and waiting on what could become Nana, Omar, Paulette, and Rene this week.

1. Recent satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea has changed little in organization since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves moves westward at at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. This system has gradually gotten better organized during the past 24 hours but is currently producing only limited showers and thunderstorms. Additional development is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for further development on Wednesday. Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

4. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing little shower activity, and any development of this system should be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

REST OF WEEK: The boundary looks to pull away from the state by midweek, and we should see some drier air work into the state from the southwest. We will reduce our rain chances to the 10-20% range for Wednesday through Friday. The days should feature a mix of sun and clouds, a few afternoon showers/storms, and highs in the low to mid 90s.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: For now, it looks like rain chances increase some over the long holiday weekend. The forecast will partly sunny days, with scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, with highs in the low 90s.

Have a great day!
Ryan