Hotter Days with Lower Rain Chances

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: An upper ridge will strengthen over the region, and our weather trends hotter and drier. Look for more sun than clouds these three days with highs in the low to mid 90s, and only isolated showers/storms during the afternoon hours. Rain chances these three days will drop to less than 10 percent for much of South/Central Alabama.

TROPICAL STORM NANA: At 500 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 82.7 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 18 mph, and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected today. A westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras today and likely be approaching the coast of Belize tonight and early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Nana is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight before it reaches the coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

TROPICAL STORM OMAR: At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 68.7 West. Omar is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the east is forecast by this evening, with a reduction in forward speed occurring through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Weakening should begin by Thursday, with Omar likely to become a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about midway between the Windward Islands and west Africa have changed little in organization since yesterday evening. Some development of this system is possible this week as it meanders over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa later today and merge with a disturbance centered a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands in the next day or so. Gradual development of this system is then possible, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: We will adjust rain chances down for Saturday as the pattern looks to remain fairly dry as a weak front pushes into the state from the north, dropping highs to lower 90s. We will increase rain chances on Sunday and Monday, with Monday appearing to have higher coverage of activity due to an approaching front. Highs Sunday and Monday will be around 90°, with a mix of sun and clouds, and scattered showers and storms.

NEXT WEEK: Scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, but a rather potent front still looks to push into the state late Wednesday, delivering a much more refreshing air mass by Thursday and Friday. This certainly looks to be that first true front of fall, with a nice push of cooler, drier air for Alabama to end the week. Model data suggests highs will drop into the mid- 80s, with lows down in the 60s for much of South/Central Alabama by then. Again, just model output, but I sure hopes this verifies, only time will tell.

Have a great day!
Ryan