Blazing Hot Tuesday; Lots of Tropical Mischief

HOT, HOT, HOT: A strong upper ridge is in place across the Deep South, and it is causing our weather to trend hotter and drier. Today the forecast features mainly sunny and hot weather with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values will be over 100°, and may approach the 105° Heat Advisory criteria at times. Also, afternoon/evening showers and storms will remain rather isolated as rain chances are generally less than 20%.

SECOND HALF OF WEEK: Tomorrow, the ridge starts to weaken, and an easterly wave will move into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which will bring back a chance of scattered showers and storms back into the forecast during the afternoon to early evening hours. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s. There will be not much change for Thursday and Friday as there will be a good bit of sun to start each day with scattered showers and storms forming during the peak heating of the day. Highs will be in the low 90s on both days.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A fairly routine late August weekend of weather for Alabama; both days should feature a partly sunny sky with those randomly scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Chance of any one spot seeing rain will be around 40% both days; highs this weekend will be on either side of 90°.

NEXT WEEK: For now, we will stick with persistence forecast as the days remain partly sunny days with some scattered afternoon and evening showers/storms on daily basis; highs will remain in the lower 90s.

IN THE TROPICS: We are approaching the peak of the season and the tropics are very active. We have three areas of concern that will likely become our next names systems. Next three names: Ida, Julian, and Kate.

1. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development is expected during the next day or two due to marginally conducive ocean temperatures and strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves northwestward to northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

3. Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located about 500 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit better organized tonight, and some additional development is possible over the next several days while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Stay cool!!!
Ryan