Michael, A Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane
HURRICANE MICHAEL: As of 4AM, At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected this morning, with a turn toward the northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42039 to the northeast of the center recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches).
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border and Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight, and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday night.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday…Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia…3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
FINALLY FEELING LIKE FALL: As Michael moves quickly to the northeast Thursday, the much anticipated refreshing and cool airmass will move into Alabama Thursday evening, and we are forecasting delightful fall weather through Sunday with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights; highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Most of the day Sunday looks dry now too.
RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Beautiful weather for the big weekend; sunny pleasant days, fair cool nights Friday through Sunday with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. It now looks like showers associated with the next cold front will hold off until Sunday night or Monday.
INTO NEXT WEEK: Showers are possible Sunday night and Monday with a cold front; moisture will be limited, and rain amounts should be light. Then, another shot of cooler air blows into the Deep South by Tuesday and the middle of next week.
Stay safe,
Ryan
