Terrific Tuesday; Increasing Severe Weather Threat Wednesday Night

GREAT WEATHER CONTINUES: We are seeing lots of sunshine across the state today, and it will be warmer with highs surging into the low and mid 80s across the state as southerly flow increases.

WARM, WINDY WEDNESDAY: Tomorrow will be a very warm, windy day with a high in the mid to upper 80s as our next system approaches. In fact, non-thunderstorm winds during the day could gust to 40/45 mph at times before the storm arrives; a wind advisory has been issued for Wednesday.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS RETURN: A band of strong to severe thunderstorms will move into Alabama late in the day and continue to head east through the state Wednesday night. The SPC has all of Alabama under the threat for severe weather Wednesday night/Thursday morning. A “moderate risk” (level4/5) cover covers for much of West Alabama, for areas west of a line from Haleyville to Birmingham to Selma to Citronelle. An “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) covers pretty much the rest of the state. Again, don’t focus at colors on the map, just know all of Alabama is under a significant threat for severe storms.

SETUP: This will be another system with very impressive wind fields and kinematic energy, but the thermodynamics aren’t impressive, limiting instability. This system looks to roll through Alabama as a QLCS (Quasi-Linear Convective System), what we use to call a squall line. Essentially a line of strong to severe storms will move through Alabama with the main concern being damaging winds, perhaps in excess of 75 mph in some of the stronger storms. Embedded within this line there could be some tornadoes as well, and some of these tornadoes could be strong (EF2+). Hail is not much of a concern this week, as there will be some warmer air in the mid-levels.

TIMING: The line of severe storms will likely enter West Alabama late in the afternoon, 5-6PM, then sweep eastward Wednesday night. Storms could linger after midnight over the eastern counties, but they will be weakening at that time with the loss off daytime heating and the better dynamics pulling away. For areas of Central Alabama, Interstate 65 corridor, it looks to be in the 10PM-2AM timeframe.

HEAVY RAINFALL: Rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely, and with the saturated soil conditions some isolated flooding problems could develop, but with the system moving through rapidly, widespread issues are not anticipated this go around.

BE PREPARED: Events like this are common in Alabama during March and April. Simply have multiple reliable ways of hearing severe weather warnings (NOAA Weather Radio, and emergency alerts on your phone), and a plan of action if you are “in the polygon”. In your safe place have helmets for everyone, and if you live in a mobile home, know the nearest shelter location, and how to get there quickly.

REST OF THE WEEK: Look for a clearing sky Thursday with a high in the mid to upper 70s. We expect the dry weather to continue on Friday with mostly sunny sky and highs again in the mid 70s.

WEEKEND WEATHER: On Saturday, the Wednesday night front, will lift back north as a warm front, bringing clouds and rain back to the state, especially across the southern half of Alabama. No severe weather threat, but there could be some elevated thunderstorms producing lightning and thunder. By Sunday, dry weather returns to Alabama. Highs this weekend will range from the lower to mid 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues Monday, but global models suggest the next round of rain and storms will come Tuesday into Wednesday. Too early to tell if severe weather will be an issue.

Have a terrific Tuesday!!!
Ryan