Dry Pattern Persist; Heat Levels Rise Again

ON THE MAPS: High pressure to our northeast continues to provide an easterly flow into the state keeping us very dry with low humidity and fairly comfortable temps, especially in the morning hours. Elsewhere across the USA, a cold front combining with Imelda remnants will produce severe storms with large to very large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain across the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. Storms may also develop in the Upper Midwest. Mountain snow in the North and Central Rockies, and widespread cooler than normal temperatures will follow the fronts passage.

FOR TONIGHT: Another very nice night of weather is ahead as temps will begin to fall pretty quick after sunset under a clear sky and by first thing tomorrow morning temperatures should be in the lower to mid 60s.

SUNNY SUNDAY: No real change in the forecast from today to tomorrow, with the exception of temps being a degree or two warmer by the afternoon. The sky should yet again feature ample sunshine and very tolerable humidity levels, meaning the mainly lower 90s for highs, won’t be feeling that bad.

THE FIRST WEEK OF FALL: The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 2:50AM CDT Monday, meaning the official start to fall. With the exception of the very dry conditions and comfortable mornings, the weather will still be very much like summer. Highs for much of the week will in the mid 90s for the most part but we could see upper 90s return by the end of the week. The threat of rain is near zero, but a weak boundary will approach the state late Tuesday and Wednesday which could try and squeeze out a few showers and storms, but once again, with the overall fairly dry air in place at all levels of the atmosphere, we are not expecting much to show up on the radar. Nights will remain comfortable with lows generally in the 60s and 70s.

TROPICAL STORM JERRY: At 500 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Jerry is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and then gradually accelerate northeastward early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast for the next several days, but short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center. The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft which is currently flying a research mission around Jerry.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft has been investigating a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands this afternoon. The aircraft found evidence of a sharp surface trough but confirmed that a well-defined circulation has not formed. Although the system is currently disorganized, at least gradual development is anticipated and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early next week. The wave is forecast to move quickly westward for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Have a great night and a splendid Sunday!
Ryan