Morning Showers, Nice Days; Easter Sunday Severe Threat

TODAY-SATURDAY: The rain and storm threat ends early today as a drier, cooler air mass settles into Alabama. Today will feature a clearing sky with highs in the lower 80s. Friday will start off cooler with lows in the 50s, but expected a sunny day with highs around 70°. Friday night will be our coldest night with a mainly clear sky, lows will fall into the lower 40s across South/Central Alabama. Saturday will be dry with increasing clouds through the afternoon, expect highs in the mid 70s.

EASTER SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER: Unfortunately, concern is growing about the potential for an high impact, severe weather event across the Southeast on Sunday. An upper-low ejects out of the Desert Southwest this weekend causing a dynamic storm system to develop and move across the South bringing with it the potential for both strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. The SPC is already highlighting much of the Northern Gulf Coast under an enhanced severe weather risk on Sunday in their “Day 4 Convective Outlook.”

The synoptic “large scale” features suggest we will have severe weather, including a negatively tilted upper-level trough. In the coming days, we will see how the mesoscale “small features” line up, and how much instability and shear will be in place. It is simply too early to discuss the magnitude of the threat at this time, but for now it looks like all modes of severe storms will be possible Sunday, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

COVID 19: The decision to seek shelter in a community storm shelter is certainly made more difficult by the consideration for COVID-19, and each individual will need to make an educated decision on where and when to shelter from a tornado. At this time, the Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) is recommending that your first priority should be to protect yourself from a potential tornado. If a warning is issued for your area, you are more likely to be affected by the tornado than the virus.

However, the decisions to open any community shelters are done at the local or county level. Before you make a decision to go to a community shelter, you should check with your community shelter managers to ensure they are open, and if there are any local COVID-19 considerations. Certainly, wherever you choose to shelter from a tornado, you should use as many precautions as possible to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 as best as you can. If you rely on public community shelters, now may be the time to explore other options that might keep you safer from severe weather and possibly limit your exposure to COVID-19.

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COOL SNAP: Behind the Sunday system, and ridge of high pressure will build in across Alabama, ending the rain and storm threat for several days, but also bring a much cooler air mass into the state for the first half of next week. Monday through Wednesday should feature plenty of sunshine, with highs in the 70s and lows down in the 40s.

Prepare now!
Ryan