Nice Friday/Saturday; Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Likely Sunday

TODAY/TOMORROW: A couple of quiet days of weather in Alabama are ahead. After the cooler start to the day, today will be a noticeably cooler with highs only around 70°, with brisk northerly winds at times. Tonight will be our coldest night with a mainly clear sky, lows will fall into 40s across South/Central Alabama. Tomorrow will be dry with increasing clouds through the afternoon, expect highs in the mid 70s.

EASTER SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK: Unfortunately, we are likely looking at a high impact, severe weather outbreak across the Deep South on Sunday. All the ingredients are coming together as an upper-low ejects out of the Desert Southwest, and the upper-level trough begins to tilt negatively which will provide ample dynamics to support severe weather this weekend over the Southeast. The SPC is already defining a ” Moderate Risk” (level 4/5) for severe storms for much of Mississippi and large portions of Alabama, Louisiana, and Arkansas, with an “Enhanced Risk” (level 3/5) for the rest of Alabama on Sunday.

At the surface, rich low-level moisture will be drawn inland from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of a deepening surface low that will move from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley by Monday morning. We will see a very volatile and very favorable environment for organized convection, including the potential for long-track supercells and a corresponding strong tornado risk. Very strong low/mid level flow fields will also support widespread damaging wind potential along with large hail.

Of course we are still three days out from the event, and forecast will be changing, as the small scale features come into line. We will be fine tuning the timing and the threat over the next several days, and it is not out of the question to see the risk categories change and upgraded before Sunday. For now, the timing shows the greatest threat of severe storms in Alabama from Sunday afternoon around 1PM-3AM Monday morning. All modes of severe weather are likely with the possibility of strong EF2+, long-tracked, violent tornadoes, damaging winds up to 70 MPH, and hail up to the size of golf balls.

Again, this is not unusual for this time of year, we are in the heart of severe weather season in Alabama, so severe weather events are expected. But now is the time to plan and be prepared for this probable severe weather outbreak on Sunday.

CALL TO ACTION: Now is the time to make sure you have all aspects of your severe weather plan ready for action. Be sure you have multiple ways of receiving and hearing warnings. Every Alabama home needs a NOAA Weather Radio, with fresh batteries and properly programmed. Have WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) enabled on your phone, and get the free Alabama News Network Weather App “ANN Weather” . And, in your safe place have helmets for everyone, along with portable air horns (if you need to get the attention of first responders), and hard sole shoes for everyone. And, if you live in a mobile home, know where you are going and how to get there quickly if and when warnings are issued.

COVID 19: The decision to seek shelter in a community storm shelter is certainly made more difficult by the consideration for COVID-19, and each individual will need to make an educated decision on where and when to shelter from a tornado. At this time, the Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) is recommending that your first priority should be to protect yourself from a potential tornado. If a warning is issued for your area, you are more likely to be affected by the tornado than the virus.

However, the decisions to open any community shelters are done at the local or county level. Before you make a decision to go to a community shelter, you should check with your community shelter managers to ensure they are open, and if there are any local COVID-19 considerations. Certainly, wherever you choose to shelter from a tornado, you should use as many precautions as possible to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 as best as you can. If you rely on public community shelters, now may be the time to explore other options that might keep you safer from severe weather and possibly limit your exposure to COVID-19.

QUIET MUCH OF NEXT WEEK: Behind the Sunday system, and ridge of high pressure will build in across Alabama, ending the rain and storm threat, and bring a cooler air mass into the state for the first half of next week. Monday through Wednesday should feature plenty of sunshine, with highs in the 70s and lows down in the 40s. A few stray showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, but for the most part, much of next week is looking dry and seasonal.

Keep social distancing, and check the forecasts through the weekend!
Ryan