Scattered Rain/Storms Today; Double Trouble Heading Towards Gulf

We will see more scattered showers and storms today as rain chances remain are in 50% range, so some locations will see rain, but this is no guarantee that every location will. The sky will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 80s due to the clouds and rain chances.

Also, we note the SPC has all of Central and South Alabama under a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for severe storms today as some storms this afternoon and evening could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Besides the wind and hail threat, all storms will of course produce intense, tropical downpours, and of course frequent lightning.

IN THE TROPICS: Waiting and watching for Laura and Marco, also, Nana may be joining the gang sooner than later as well.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN: At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 58.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

This system is of greatest concern for us in Alabama as the current forecast track from the NHC has this system ending up near Pensacola, Florida, late Tuesday night and early Wednesday as a hurricane. Too early to know what impacts this system will have on Alabama or the Central Gulf Coast.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN: At 500 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 83.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph, and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by this afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday.On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, today and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it traverses the Yucatan Peinsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

The official track from the NHC has this system impacting the Upper Texas Coast (Houston/Galveston) early next week as a hurricane.

Also, A tropical wave moving off of the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move farther offshore over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and it could become a tropical depression within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for development early next week. Regardless of development, this system will likely bring gusty winds across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands this weekend, as well as heavy rains that could cause flooding. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent. This will likely become Nana early next week. This is far from the U.S and just something to watch for now.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Expect partly sunny conditions Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and highs in the upper 80s. Sunday trends drier for now, with fewer afternoon showers and storms with highs closer to 90°.

NEXT WEEK: Our weather will all depend on the developments with the tropical systems in the Gulf, but for now we should see widespread rain and storms Tuesday and Wednesday, but still there is no way of knowing exactly how that scenario plays out just yet, so stay tuned for changing forecasts over the weekend and into early next week.

Have a phenomenal Friday!!!
Ryan