Warm End to 2020; Stormy Start to 2021

STRONG STORMS TO START 2021: A dynamic storm system will bring active weather in the form of rain and strong storms to Alabama tonight and into Friday morning. It is a fairly common system for this time of the year featuring strong wind fields, lots of shear, and weak instability. Our forecast today will feature increasing clouds, very mild temperatures, in the 70s, and scattered showers at times.

PLACEMENT: For now, SPC has a “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe storm defined in the broad zone from Tuscaloosa to Autaugaville to Greenville to Andalusia, and a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) as far east as Alex City, Tuskegee, and Ozark. SPC has and “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi for today. This is where the best combination of shear and instability will be found, but keep in mind the risk areas could be expanded in future outlooks.

TIMING: The timing continues to slow down and for now it looks like the main window for severe thunderstorms in Alabama will come from roughly 10PM tonight through 1PM Friday. Scattered showers are expected during the day today, but it won’t rain all day, and any storms that form before 9PM most likely will be under severe limits.

THREATS: A few isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and early tomorrow, especially in the “slight risk” area. Also, storms will be capable of producing strong straight line winds. Even away from storms it will be windy Thursday night with gradient winds of 15-35 mph, gusting to 40 mph.

RAIN: Rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely; for now no major flooding issues are expected.

These “high shear, low CAPE” overnight events in the cool season can be tricky in Alabama; sometimes small tornadoes can touch down for a few minutes with no warning, while other times they can produce some larger, more damaging tornadoes.

CALL TO ACTION: Bottom line is that everyone needs to be weather aware late tonight and for the first half Friday. Be sure you have a way of hearing severe weather warnings, and an action plan if you are in a tornado warning polygon, take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously too. Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home and business, properly programmed with a fresh battery in case of power failure. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) enabled on your phone… this is not an app, but built into every phone sold in the U.S. Check settings, and notifications, and be sure emergency alerts are on. Have the free Alabama News Network weather app on your phone as a secondary way of getting warnings. Search the App Store for “ANN Weather” if you don’t have it already.

In a site built home, identify the safe place. Small room, lowest floor, near the center of the house, away from windows. And, in that safe place, have helmets for everyone in the family (including adults!), portable air horns, and hard sole shoes. You CANNOT stay in a mobile home if you are in a tornado warning polygon. Know the closest shelter, and how to get there quickly.

Sheltering from a tornado is first priority when it comes to the COVID-19 situation. A tornado is an immediate threat to life; get to your safe place or shelter and do the best you can to protect yourself from exposure to the virus.

HELLO 2021: The rain and storms will exit the state late tomorrow with highs in the 70s. Looks like there will be just enough convergence to generate showers across much of the area Saturday afternoon. Still some timing and best placement issues to resolve, but the overall concept is being hinting at by the models. The best chances will be in the south and east, closest to the better moisture content. The upper low swings out on Sunday night and we will trend dry through midweek. Highs this weekend will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

NEXT WEEK: Monday’s weather will be absolutely fabulous as skies will be mainly sunny with maybe a passing cloud or two. Afternoon highs will be right around 60 degrees across South and Central Alabama. Not much different on Tuesday as highs will be in the low 60s under mostly sunny skies.

Happy New Year!!!
Ryan