Wet and Stormy Wednesday
Today, the SPC maintains “marginal risk” of severe storms for pretty much the southern half of the state where instability values should be sufficient for some strong to possibly severe storms, with damaging wind gusts the main concern. The tornado threat is very low, but not zero. The heaviest rain should move down into the southern part of Alabama by mid-morning tomorrow, but a few isolated showers could linger into the afternoon. A good chance the high tomorrow will come during the morning hours; we will fall from near 60 tomorrow morning, through the 50s, and possibly into the 40s by mid to late afternoon as the cold front moves across the state, and a cooler air mass settles into the state.
A SOLAR MINIMUM SUNSPOT: With Solar Minimum right around the corner, sunspot counts are at an almost 10-year low. So it came as a surprise yesterday when a relatively large sunspot emerged near the sun’s eastern limb. AR2699 has a primary dark core larger than Earth with many smaller magnetic condensations trailing behind it, in all stretching more than 75,000 km across the sun’s surface. Rare “solar minimum sunspots” are capable of intense explosions just like sunspots during more active phases of the solar cycle.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Thursday will be dry with seasonal temperatures and a good supply of sunshine; we start the day near freezing, then rising into the mid 50s by afternoon. Friday will feature a mix of sun and clouds, and while most of the day will be dry we will introduce the risk of a few scattered afternoon showers as moisture levels rise. Temperatures rise into the low 60s Friday afternoon.
WET WEEKEND WEATHER: The weekend looks wet as the active weather pattern continues. We will mention a good chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday ahead of a slow moving cold front; it won’t rain the entire weekend, but be ready for occasional showers and a heavy downpour at times. Temperatures will be fairly mild for February with highs in the 60s both days. And, for now, instability looks very limited so severe storms don’t look especially likely. Rain amounts over the weekend once again will be in the 1-2 inch range.
NEXT WEEK: There could be enough moisture around for a few scattered showers Monday and Tuesday, but nothing really organized. A surface front could bring an increase in showers by Wednesday. The week looks mild with highs mostly in the 60s as the upper air flow will keep the really cold air bottled up over the northern U.S
Have a great day!
Ryan
