Noon Update: Umbrella Needed Through the Weekend

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather becomes unsettled as the temperatures aloft will be colder, and the air becomes more unstable. Also, some short wave energy approaches and we expect the weather to be rather unsettled on these three days. It will be occasionally cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Most of the showers will come from during the afternoon and evening hours, but a late night or morning shower can’t be ruled out. And, with a limited amount of sun, heat levels back down with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

USA BRIEF: A slow moving frontal system will bring strong to severe storms, and, locally heavy rain from the Plains to the Northeast. Monsoon moisture shifts to the east into portions of the southern Plains and may produce excessive rains across portions of the High Plains and desert southwest. Fire Weather threats remain elevated to critical with isolated dry thunderstorms in the Intermountain West.

A MYSTERY IN THE MESOSPHERE: This summer, something strange has been happening in the mesosphere–a layer of Earth’s atmosphere so high that it nearly touches space. The mesosphere is the realm of noctilucent clouds, electric-blue glowing forms that are seeded by meteor smoke. Lately, these clouds have been glowing more brightly than usual. What’s happening up there?

NEXT WEEK: Showers and thunderstorms will remain fairly numerous across the state Monday and Tuesday, but a surface front is forecast to push south of I-20 Wednesday, meaning drier air for the northern counties of Alabama with the bulk of the showers and storms to the south. The dry air looks to remain in place over a decent part of the state Thursday and Friday, and we may have the slightest hint of fall in the air. Humidity values should be noticeably lower late in the week over North Alabama with cooler mornings. Lows in the lower 60s are expected, and some of the cooler spots could dip down into the upper 50s. Fingers are crossed this forecast verifies!!!

TROPICAL UPDATE: At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 45.6 North, longitude 36.4 West. Ernesto is moving quickly toward the northeast near 25 mph, and an even faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, Ernesto will approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal zone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

A tropical wave located about 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Island continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward around 15 mph toward the Windward Islands. By late Saturday, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for additional development while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles later today and this weekend. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Stay dry and have a great day!
Ryan