Above-Average Temps Ahead; Very Active Tropics
FOR TODAY: The stalled front remains in place and once again the greatest coverage of showers and storms will be for southern portions of the state, along and south of the front. It looks like northern portions of Alabama should remain fairly dry, but temperatures will be hotter today as lower 90s look to return.
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Florence will influence our weather in Alabama in the coming days. As common with a system heading towards the East Coast, we will have subsidence (sinking air) in Alabama around the outer periphery of the storm, meaning that afternoon showers will thin out and become few and far between. The chance of any one spot getting wet each afternoon will be only in the 10/20 percent range. With the lower rain chances, Alabama’s weather will be trending hotter and drier for the next five to seven days. We will see highs remain in the lower 90s Thursday, Friday, and over the weekend.
And, it looks like much of next week will be dry across the state as well as the huge rain shield associated with Florence remains north and east of our state. Highs next week will be mostly in the upper 80s and there is no sign of any big rain event.
Sometimes with large system to our east, our flow will come from the north, and this flow can pull an early season cold front south into Alabama, unfortunately this go round with Florence, there is no sign of any really cool air for the next seven to ten days either coming towards Alabama. The only change in our weather could be slightly less humid weather, but once again, it will be hot with temperatures at or above seasonal averages.
Now to the storm of the hour…
FLORENCE: At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 70.1 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday, and move through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).
Key Messages:
1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should complete preparations and follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions of the Carolinas.
HELEN: At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 35.7 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the north is expected later today. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is likely by the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
ISAAC:At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 53.5 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac’s center is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Isaac later this morning and should provide a better assessment of the intensity of the tropical storm and the extent of its winds.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS:
Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized during the past several hours in association with a trough of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. In addition, satellite data and surface observations indicate that there is still no sign of a surface circulation. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday before the system reaches the western Gulf Coast. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the system
later today, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
A non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Azores is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and gale-force winds. This system could gradually acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it meanders over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
Next names up for use, Joyce and Kirk.
Have a great day!
Ryan
