More Summer-Like Heat; Watching the Tropics
FOR OUR SUNDAY: The weather will be a near repeat of today’s weather as the ridge continues to hold. That means more hot temperatures with partly to mostly clear skies and just a very slight chance of a few isolated showers for the northern parts of the area. Highs remain in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Sunday evening will be fair with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge slowly weakens as a pattern change begins with the trough moving east and nudging the ridge east too. We will mention widely scattered afternoon showers and storms Monday and Tuesday, followed by higher rain chances over the latter half of the week all due to what could become Michael in the Gulf in the coming days. How that system behaves will greatly determine out weather in 5-7 days. Highs will drop to near 80 late in the week.
WAITING IN MICHAEL: Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras. The associated showers and thunderstorms show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday while the system moves slowly northward. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next week. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
As with an evolving pattern and a developing cyclone, we will have to wait to see how the system forms. The Hurricane Hunters are on stand by to fly missions into the system tomorrow.
As far as effects along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida, it looks likely that the rip current threat will be high to extreme through much of the week. The storm looks like it will be fairly small, with the main rain and wind near the center, so impacts will be dependent on the track and we will be able to be specific as the situation unfolds.
For Alabama, again, the track will determine the impacts, but it looks like the heavy rain and wind will be limited to South and Southeast Alabama either Wednesday or Thursday so stay tuned!
