Random Showers and Storms; Watching Cristobal
AIR YOU CAN WEAR: Dew points are in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and these are the moisture levels and you can feel when you step outside. Today and tomorrow, these high moisture levels will yield a greater coverage of those randomly scattered, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will be around 40 percent both days, and there is no way of knowing in advance exactly when and where the showers and thunderstorms will form; you just have to watch radar trends each day. Highs will be in 85-90 degree range. Brief, heavy downpours and frequent lightning are possible with any storms this time of year.
WEEKEND WEATHER: For Saturday not much change, expect a partly sunny sky, very warm and humid conditions, with scattered afternoon and evening showers/storms. For Sunday, we expect an increase in the number of showers and storms as deep tropical moisture is pulled northward due to the system in the Gulf. Plan for more clouds than sun, very muggy conditions and highs in the mid 80s.
WATCHING CRISTOBAL: Most recent update on Cristobal…the center continues to sit inland over the Yucatan and as of 400 AM CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located over southern Mexico near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 91.3 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph, and this motion should continue this morning. A turn toward the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, and over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Cristobal is expected to weaken to a depression during the next several hours. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center, primarily over water to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
CRISTOBAL FORECAST: Again re-strengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water tomorrow. The latest NHC track places Cristobal on the Louisiana coast late Sunday night as an upper-end tropical storm. The main impact will come from heavy rain and potential flooding…but a lot can change in the coming days so stay tuned.
ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST: If you have a beach trip planned, or live along the Central Gulf Coast, expect a mix of sun and clouds today and tomorrow with the usual risk of a passing shower or storm from time to time. As Cristobal approaches, rain coverage will increase over the weekend. This is the expected impact in the zone from Dauphin Island east to Panama City Beach Sunday and Monday:
*Occasional rain and a few thunderstorms. Rain could be heavy at times, and some flooding issues are possible. Rain amounts of 4-6 inches are likely Saturday through Monday.
*Winds Sunday night on the Alabama Gulf Coast will be in the 20-30 mph range, with gusts to 40 mph possible. Velocities will be lower as you go farther east down the Northwest Florida coast. The wind field will be much calmer Monday as Cristobal moves into Louisiana and weakens.
*Some waterspouts or tornadoes will be possible Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
*Very dangerous rip currents will occur over the weekend, and through at least Monday.
*Showers and storms will thin out Tuesday and through the rest of the week, with increasing potential for sun.
This impact forecast is based on the current forecast track and intensity. Understand this can change; always work with the latest forecast information when making decisions.
NEXT WEEK: The tropical air mass will remain in place to start the week as the center of Cristobal moves north to the west of Alabama, keeping Alabama on the wet side of the system. Monday and Tuesday will feature more clouds than sun with scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms and highs in the 80s. By midweek the remnants of Cristobal should pull away leaving humid air, but the daily storms should become more scattered in nature and mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs in the mid and upper 80s to lower 90s are expected.
Keep social distancing and protest peacefully!!!
Ryan
