Warm & Muggy Tuesday; Watching Eta in the Gulf
We are seeing more clouds than sun again today across the state and temperatures are very warm for this time of year as upper 70s and lower 80s widespread, which are a good ten to fifteen degrees above average for mid-November. Moisture levels are on the rise across the state as well, so we will bring the chance of scattered showers this afternoon, with lingering showers into tonight. A cold front will be approaching the state on tomorrow, so rain chances will increase, and we may even have some thunderstorms mixed in as well, but no severe storms are expected. Rain amounts will be generally in the 1/2 inch range for much of Alabama. Drier air will move into the northern half of the state behind the front Wednesday night.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days should more sun than clouds, lower humidity, and slightly cooler temps. Highs will remain in the 70s, but nights will be a bit more refreshing with temps in the 50s.
ETA IN THE GULF: Eta is in the Southern Gulf of Mexico this morning with sustained winds of 50 mph. Eta is stationary, and little overall motion is forecast today, with a slow northward motion is expected tonight through Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles grom the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
Steering currents have collapsed around the system, and the system will meander around the southern or eastern Gulf of Mexico for most of the week. As far as where the system heads remains a bit uncertain. The official track from the NHC shows the system turning north and heading towards the western Florida Panhandle making landfall this weekend as a tropical depression. But again, this could certainly change over the next few days. If this track remains true and there is a direct impact, it will involve rain, and most likely not wind. Again, stay tuned for updates throughout the week.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: Theta formed yesterday, but is no threat to the U.S., while we continue to watch the Caribbean as we are likely to see Iota develop by the weekend. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA: The storm is moving toward the east near 12 mph. An eastward to east-northeastward motion across the eastern Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next few days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The forecast confidence for the weekend remains low due to the uncertainty with Tropical Storm Eta. For now we will mention clouds with areas of rain by late Saturday and into Sunday. But, understand the forecast could change dramatically in the days ahead as Eta ultimate destination remains unknown. Highs will hold in the 70s.
NEXT WEEK:The overall weather pattern looks to return to more of what we expect for November in Alabama as cooler weather looks to return with highs dropping back into the 60s by mid-week, with lows in the 40s.
Stay safe!
Ryan
