Warm Wednesday; Strong Storms Late Thursday Night into Friday Morning
Today will be dry with highs in the low 70s, but look for increasing clouds tonight ahead of our next storm system which causes some concern for the potential of strong and severe storms.
STRONG STORMS TO END 2020: A dynamic storm system will bring active weather to Alabama Thursday, Thursday night, and into Friday morning. It is a fairly common system for this time of the year featuring strong wind fields, lots of shear, and weak instability.
PLACEMENT: For now, SPC has a “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe storm defined in the broad zone from Tuscaloosa to Autaugaville to Greenville to Andalusia, and a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) as far east as Alex City, Tuskegee, and Ozark. This is where the best combination of shear and instability will be found, but keep in mind the risk areas could be expanded in future outlooks.
TIMING: The main window for severe thunderstorms in Alabama will come from roughly 9PM Thursday night through 9AM Friday morning. Periods of rain are expected during the day tomorrow, but it won’t rain all day, and any storms that form before 6PM most likely will be under severe limits.
THREATS: A few isolated tornadoes are possible Thursday night and early Friday, especially in the “slight risk” area. Also, storms will be capable of producing strong straight line winds. Even away from storms it will be windy Thursday night with gradient winds of 15-35 mph, gusting to 40 mph.
RAIN: Rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely; for now no major flooding issues are expected.
These “high shear, low CAPE” overnight events in the cool season can be tricky in Alabama; sometimes small tornadoes can touch down for a few minutes with no warning, while other times they can produce some larger, more damaging tornadoes.
Bottom line is that everyone needs to be weather aware Thursday night and early Friday morning. Be prepared and make sure you have all aspects of your severe weather safety plan ready for action. Be sure you have a way of hearing severe weather warnings, and an action plan if you are in a tornado warning polygon, take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously too. Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home and business, properly programmed with a fresh battery in case of power failure. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) enabled on your phone… this is not an app, but built into every phone sold in the U.S. Check settings, and notifications, and be sure emergency alerts are on. Have the free Alabama News Network Weather App on your phone as a secondary way of getting warnings. Search the App Store for “ANN Weather” if you don’t have it already.
In a site built home, identify the safe place. Small room, lowest floor, near the center of the house, away from windows. And, in that safe place, have helmets for everyone in the family (including adults!), portable air horns, and hard sole shoes. You CANNOT stay in a mobile home if you are in a tornado warning polygon. Know the closest shelter, and how to get there quickly. Sheltering from a tornado is first priority when it comes to the COVID-19 situation. A tornado is an immediate threat to life; get to your safe place or shelter and do the best you can to protect yourself from exposure to the virus.
HELLO 2021: Sunshine will return to the area for the weekend as skies will be partly to mostly sunny on Saturday with highs in the lower 60s. Sunday will feature near-maximum sunshine with cooler temperatures as highs will be in the upper 50s.
NEXT WEEK: Monday’s weather will be absolutely fabulous as skies will be mainly sunny with maybe a passing cloud or two. Afternoon highs will be right around 60 degrees across South and Central Alabama. Not much different on Tuesday as highs will again be around 60° under mostly sunny skies.
Have a whimsical Wednesday!!!
Ryan
