Noon Update: Scattered Storms and Tropical Mischief

TODAY/TOMORROW: Not much change for the rest of the week. Whether you have to head back to work, or you have the rest of the week off, you can expect morning sunshine, then scattered, hit or miss showers and storms in the afternoons. No way of knowing in advance when and where the storms pop up, but as we see most days, the highest coverage will come during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs should be in the lower 90s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Looks like the coverage of showers and storms Saturday will be higher as a weak surface front drifts down to near the Alabama/Tennessee border, and another easterly wave moves across the state. The sky will be cloudy at times with a high in the 80s. The front will become stationary somewhere over North Alabama Sunday; we will maintain the chance of scattered storms over most of the state with a high in the mid to upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Little change in the weather pattern means little change in the day to day forecast. For next week, expect hot, humid weather is the story. The stalled front just north of here will dissipate Monday, and through the week it is the usual summer situation with the risk of pop up afternoon storms on a daily basis. Otherwise, partly sunny days with a high in the low 90s for most places.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK: Two areas the NHC is monitoring as it appears the Atlantic tropics may be waking up…

Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles to the southwest of Bermuda are associated with a weak trough of low pressure. This system appears to be less organized, and the potential for a tropical depression to form is diminishing. However, environmental conditions are still conducive for some development before the end of the week, while the system moves west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. The disturbance is then forecast to interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any additional
development. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains well organized, and a tropical depression could form at any time soon. This disturbance is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, in a few days, the upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.

Have a great day!
Ryan