Storms Becoming More Numerous

TODAY: The seabreeze front will move in from the south today and that means we will have higher rain chances today. By this afternoon, as highs reach the lower 90s, we will see those randomly scattered, showers and storms. For tonight and into the overnight hours, any showers and storms will diminish soon after we lose the sunlight and the heating of the day, but some patchy fog may develop in those locations that do receive rainfall today. The remainder of Central Alabama will have mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the lower to mid-70s.

USA BRIEF: A low pressure system over the Mississippi Valley may yield heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns through Friday. In addition, the threat for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail will continue. Fire threats remain high across parts of the West with hot and dry conditions expected.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather becomes unsettled as the temperatures aloft will be colder, and the air becomes more unstable. The sky will be occasionally cloudy on these three days with scattered to numerous showers and storms. While most of them will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower. Highs drop into the 85-89 degree range due to the increase in clouds and showers. It certainly won’t rain all weekend long, but be ready for an occasional shower or thunderstorm.

NEXT WEEK: The weather remains rather wet at least for the first half of the week, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday; highs hold in the upper 80s. We have seen a few model runs that suggest drier could enter North Alabama Thursday and Friday, but fronts have a hard time pushing this far south in August, and we will need to maintain the chance of at least scattered showers and storms on through the end of the week.

TROPICAL UPDATE: At 500 AM AST, the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 44.1 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph. A significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles from the center.The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 750 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands are associated with a tropical wave. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next 2 to 3 days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the Windward Islands. After that time, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for additional development when the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Have a great day!
Ryan