All Eyes on Gordon

GORDON: At 400 AM CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 85.7 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph.

A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, and will approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the warning area late this afternoon or evening, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley tonight or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected today, and Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is expected after Gordon moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). A Hurricane Warning is in effect from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border.

COASTAL IMPACT: The primary threat is from heavy rain, flooding, and rip currents along the coast. Flash flood watches are up for Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, and westward across South Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana. Rain amounts of 2-6 inches are likely, with isolated heavier amounts. Most of the rain directly associated with the tropical system will come late this afternoon, tonight, and into Wednesday morning. We could see a few wind gusts to 80 mph, but winds will be generally in the 45-75 mph range on the Alabama Gulf Coast tonight into Wednesday morning. A few isolated tornadoes or waterspouts are possible as the system nears the coast, but the overall threat is low. The SPC does have a severe weather threat identified in their outlooks for today across portions of South and Southwest Alabama. The weather will improve greatly on the Gulf Coast Thursday and Friday.

INLAND IMPACT: There will be a sharp gradient in rain across Alabama with this system; the heaviest rain will come over Southwest Alabama, mostly south of a line from Butler to Monroeville to Florala.

Some rain is possible Wednesday and Thursday over the western third of the state, but heavier totals will be west of Alabama. We will also be watching for the threat of a few isolated tornadoes within the rain bands which move across South/Central Alabama as the storms moves onshore and inland. These are typically small, short-lived tornadoes, which can cause significant damage, if and when they occur.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS:

At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 42.0 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest around Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but some weakening is forecast on Wednesday. Afterward, gradual strengthening is forecast through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and it could become a tropical depression late this week or this weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

GEOMAGNETIC MEGASTORM: On Sept. 2, 1859, a powerful CME rocked Earth’s magnetic field, causing a geomagnetic storm that set fire to Victorian telegraph offices and sparked auroras as far south as Mexico and Cuba. Now known as the “Carrington Event,” that megastorm 159 years ago is a touchstone of modern extreme space weather research. What are the odds it could happen again?

BEYOND GORDON: Thursday through Saturday look relatively dry with a good supply of sunshine and only isolated to scattered afternoon showers/storms. Afternoon storms could be a little more numerous Sunday as a surface front approaches from the north. Afternoon highs will remain generally in the lower 90s over the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: Seems like the chance of showers and storms will be higher over North Alabama Monday and Tuesday with a slow moving surface front just to the north…then there is a chance we see drier air toward the end of next week with the GFS showing an upper trough over the eastern third of the nation. But, the European model isn’t on board with that idea. And, keep in mind the first good push of cool air of the fall season usually arrives in Alabama in late September.

Stay weather aware!
Ryan