Quiet Until Friday; Strong/Severe Storms Saturday

The sky becomes sunny today as the front pushes to the east; the high will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday will be another sunny day; the morning low will be around the freezing mark, followed by a high in the low 60s. Thursday will stay dry, with increasing clouds, temperatures rise into the mid to upper 60s.

RAIN/STORMS RETURN: During the day Friday, moisture levels rise as a warm front lifts north across the state. We expect periods of rain and perhaps a few storms during the day. Highs on Friday will be in the lower 70s. West of Alabama on Friday, severe storms are likely and perhaps a substantial severe outbreak is possible across parts of East Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. That threat shifts east towards Mississippi and Alabama by Saturday.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY: The SPC has defined a severe weather risk for all of Alabama and Mississippi on their “Day 5” outlook for Saturday.

A deep, negatively tilted upper trough will interact with a warm, unstable airmass in place across the Deep South on Saturday and we are expecting rain and storms through the day Saturday as a surface front pushes into the state. Along and out ahead of the front, storms could be strong to severe, with potential for all modes of severe weather, which includes hail, damaging winds, and some tornadoes.

Yes, there are strong signals that severe storms will form across our region based on the large, synoptic scale weather pattern. But, the small scale (mesoscale) features usually determine the true impact, and we simply don’t know how those elements will line up now as a lot can and will change in the coming days. It remains way too early to know specific threats, timing, and locations as the situations evolves in the coming days and just understand that severe storms are possible Saturday. Now is time to just get prepared and have that severe weather plan in place, and also have a way of hearing warnings.

RAINFALL: We should also note that rain amounts Friday and Saturday will be in the 1-3 inch range over the northern half of the state, with 1-2 inches for South Alabama. With the ground pretty saturated, this could lead to some flash flooding issues as well.

SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: The front stalls just to our south Sunday, and though Sunday looks dry, we will maintain a mainly cloudy day. The front will life north Sunday night and stall across the state as we roll into next week, meaning an active weather pattern with rain expected Sunday night, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Over the next seven days, rainfall totals of 2-5 inches are likely across the state.

With the front stalled across the area, temperatures will remain mild for mid January with upper 60s and lower 70s each day.

Have a great day!
Ryan