Hot, Humid, Storms; Cristobal Now Moving North

AIR YOU CAN WEAR: A very muggy air mass is in place across Alabama, meaning plenty of moisture to fuel those randomly, scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. We say this often this time of year, there is just no way of knowing exactly when and where the storms will form any given day, you just have to watch radar trends. Storm this time of year produce brief, heavy downpours and frequent lightning, so when thunder roars, head indoors. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and tomorrow.

For Sunday, the much higher rain chances should remain across South Alabama, south of Montgomery, as deep tropical moisture is pulled northward due to the system in the Gulf, however we should still some areas of scatter rain and storms the north of there. Still plan for more clouds than sun, very muggy conditions and highs in the upper 80s.

LATEST ON CRISTOBAL: Cristobal remains inland over southern Mexico and remains Depression. At At 400 AM CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located inland near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 90.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph. A turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today, and a general northward motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the Yucatan peninsula through the day today. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by tonight, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected while the depression is located over land. Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin once the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

No change in the NHC forecast track; the tropical storm is expected to move into the Louisiana coast Sunday night with winds of 60-65 mph. The circulation center will move through Louisiana and Arkansas Monday and Monday night while weakening.

IMPACT FOR THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST: This discussion is for the area from Dauphin Island, eastward through Gulf Shores, Destin, and Panama City Beach. This part of the coast will be on the wet, east side of the system.

*The sky will be partly sunny along the Central Gulf Coast today and tomorrow with the usual risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect about 5 to 7 hours of sunshine both days.

*Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase over the weekend, but the rain won’t be continuous, and you should see a few intervals of sunshine both Sunday and Monday. Rain could be occasionally heavy, and we expect rain totals in the 3-6 inch range Saturday through Monday. Some flooding is possible in isolated areas, but the higher flood risk is to the west, along the Mississippi coast and Southeast Louisiana.

*Showers will thin out late Monday, and the weather looks pretty routine for much of next week with partly sunny days and the usual risk of a passing shower or storm from time to time.

*Very dangerous rip currents are ongoing along the coast today through Monday.

* Some waterspouts or brief tornadoes are possible Sunday and Sunday night.

*Winds of 15-25 mph are likely Sunday and Sunday night with gusts to 35 mph. Higher wind velocities will remain to the west of the Alabama coast.

This impact forecast is based on the current forecast track and intensity. Understand this can change; always work with the latest forecast information when making decisions.

NEXT WEEK: The tropical air mass will remain in place to start the week as the center of Cristobal moves north to the west of Alabama, keeping Alabama on the wet side of the system. Monday and Tuesday will feature more clouds than sun with scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms and highs in the 80s. By midweek the remnants of Cristobal should pull away and we will see a decrease in the coverage of those daily storms as they become more scattered in nature and again, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are expected.

Have fantastic Friday, protest peacefully, and continue to social distance!!!
Ryan