Spring-like Weekend, Storms Next Week
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It has been fantastic Friday with plenty of blue sky and sunshine across Alabama and our temperatures continue to moderate. After starting the day in the 30s and 40s, we saw temperatures during the afternoon in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Heading out and about tonight it will be gorgeous, with clear and calm conditions, but grab the jackets as temperatures will be falling to near 40F by tomorrow morning.
SPRING-LIKE WEEKEND: Sunshine will be in full supply tomorrow and temperatures likely reach the lower 70s , followed by mid-70s on Sunday. By Sunday afternoon clouds will be increasing and those clouds could allow for a few showers across Alabama Sunday night. Enjoy this wonderful weekend of weather, as it will certainly not be feeling like the last weekend of January.
NEW MONTH, NEW WEATHER WOES: For Monday, which is the first of February, we will see scattered showers remaining a possibility, and we stay mild with a high in the mid-70s. But, we will be watching developments to the west closely as a major storm system will form over the Southwest U.S. This will be the system that looks to produce quite the outbreak of severe weather for portions of the Southeast Monday and Tuesday.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY: The computer models are in very good agreement, which gives us the continued confidence that there will be a severe weather event for the Southeast. It’s too early to focus on exact locations, timing, and specific strength of any severe weather, but we want people to be sure to keep this in mind as we head into next week. The SPC maintains their higher severe weather probabilities for Tuesday and Tuesday night over portions of the Mid-South, and that includes North and West Alabama, while the rest of Alabama, which includes much of our viewing area, is in the standard risk.
A vigorous upper trough will support a deepening surface low that will move from the Southwest into Missouri. With the low to the northwest of us, this places Alabama in the warm sector, and the track of the low is favorable for the threat of severe weather in the state. Instability values will rise as our the low-level jet streams north out of the Gulf of Mexico bringing warm and very moist air Tuesday afternoon. Surface dew points in the 60s are expected, and these are very high for this time of year. In the upper-levels of the atmosphere, the jet stream will be screaming at over 130 knots, which is favorable for convergence at the surface. With instability and dynamics in place, the atmosphere will be very supportive for severe storms.
It looks as though the main severe weather threat will come Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The current set-up will be favorable for all modes of severe weather to be possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes, but it appears that the best chance of severe weather will be over western and northern portions of Alabama and also for portions of Mississippi and Tennessee.
Once again, enjoy this beautiful weekend of weather. This storm system is still five days out and a lot can and will change. No need to be worried or anxious, but we do want folks to know that next week, they will need to stay weather aware.
WINTER RETURNS: Behind the storm system we are going to have much colder air return to the state. The deep trough will allow for cold air to once again spill into Alabama. We should see afternoon highs back in the lower 50s and overnight lows will once again be near or at freezing. The weather should be dry with a mix of sun and clouds.