Rain & Storms for Easter

The front that came through earlier this week, stalled along the Gulf Coast and caused widespread showers and storms across the Gulf Coast and southern portions of Alabama this morning. There are a few light showers Central Alabama this afternoon, but these are mainly east of Interstate 65 and are few and far between. The rest of today the vast majority of Central Alabama will stay dry, before rain returns overnight. Temperatures this afternoon are in the 60s and 70s, with the warmer temps where the sun is shining.

EASTER SUNDAY: Southerly flow will continue overnight and into tomorrow and that means the weather turns wet Sunday for much of Central Alabama. For those sunrise services, widespread showers and storms are expected to be ongoing across South Alabama once again. Here is model output of radar reflectivity at 6AM tomorrow. This is model output, and not a forecast, but this is what could be ongoing in the morning. I am suggesting everyone grab the rain gear before heading out the door.

Through the day, showers and storms should lift north across the state, and also tomorrow, an upper trough will be coming across Missouri with a cold front along the Mississippi River at midday. In the latest Day 2 convective outlook, the SPC has a “slight risk” area northwest of Alabama. The standard “slight risk” area covers much of the western half of Kentucky and Northwest Tennessee. For Alabama, though storms are possible, the SPC has all but trimmed Alabama out of a severe weather threat, except the far NW corner of Alabama, the coastal counties, where a “marginal risk” is in place.

Tomorrow, instability values appear high enough for some thunder, but shear values are pretty low. With the stationary front along the Gulf Coast, convection should be ongoing and that convection along the Gulf Coast will likely be cutting off the really good moisture from returning to Alabama. That being said, though the threat of severe weather is not expected, we are expecting periods of showers and storms; it looks as though those some of the Easter Egg hunts may have to be held indoors. Below is more model output of radar reflectivity at Noon tomorrow. It looks to be rather unsettled with heavy rain and storms. Gusty winds, hail, and lots of lightning are possible as well, but once again, at this time severe weather is not expected.

The unsettled weather will push out of the state Sunday night and the cold front will bring sunny and drier weather for the state of the work week.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Expect cooler temps Monday with a north wind as highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tuesday will be a near repeat of Monday, but afternoon highs will climb into the upper 70s. Definitely some great weather for all those that are on spring break this week.

REST OF WEEK: The weather will turn active for the second half of next week. As early as Wednesday evening, showers and storms are expected as a warm front moves north across the state. To the west, a potent storm system will be moving out of the Plains and will be sending another cold front into Alabama Thursday. Several rounds of showers and storms are likely through Friday and we may have to deal with strong and possibly severe storms. A lot of model uncertainty, but stay tuned for future forecast details. Despite the rain, it will be mild with temperatures in the 70s for Central Alabama. Once the cold front moves through, we are expecting colder weather for next weekend, and April looks to start off rather chilly with a deep trough developing over the eastern half of the U.S.

HOLE IN THE SUN’S ATMOSPHERE: A canyon-shaped hole in the sun’s atmosphere has opened up and it is spewing solar wind toward Earth. Estimated time of arrival: March 27-28. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for a springtime display of auroras.